Hawaii has long distinguished itself as one of the few U.S. states that has consistently rejected every major form of legalized gambling, from commercial casinos and lotteries to pari-mutuel wagering and sports betting. Despite recurring legislative proposals and persistent speculation that online sports betting might finally gain traction under Governor Josh Green’s administration, particularly as other states embraced regulated wagering, the state’s position has ultimately remained unchanged. Bills have repeatedly stalled or failed, reflecting a broader policy preference that prioritizes limiting gambling opportunities over expanding state revenue. The result is that Hawaii continues to stand firmly apart from the national trend, preserving one of the country’s most comprehensive prohibitions on gambling in virtually all of its forms.
That unwavering legal stance, however, has not eliminated gambling from the islands. Instead, illegal casino gaming and underground sports betting have continued to flourish beyond public view, especially in and around Honolulu, where law enforcement has periodically dismantled sophisticated operations. During the summer of 2026, authorities announced a series of enforcement actions targeting suspected illegal gambling establishments and related activities in Mililani, Moiliili, Waipahu, and Waianae, underscoring the persistence of an entrenched black market. These investigations reinforced a difficult reality for policymakers: suppressing legal gambling does not necessarily extinguish consumer demand, and organized illegal operators have continued to fill that void while operating outside taxation, regulation, consumer protections, and responsible gambling safeguards.
Ironically, Hawaii’s most steadfast anti-gambling lawmakers and the very underground gambling operators they oppose may now find themselves confronting a shared disruptive force: federally regulated prediction markets. Rather than offering traditional sportsbook accounts, these platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to sporting outcomes, using familiar wagering terminology including moneyline, point spread, over/under, and proposition-style outcomes. This evolving model has complicated Hawaii’s longstanding prohibition on sports betting because participants can gain economic exposure to athletic contests through financial contracts rather than conventional wagers, creating an increasingly blurred distinction between derivatives trading and sports gambling.
The emergence of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated sports event contracts has therefore introduced an entirely new policy challenge. Platforms and products such as DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood’s sports trading offerings have, in practical terms, made sports-event speculation more accessible to Hawaii residents through mechanisms that differ from traditional sportsbooks. For a state that has spent decades attempting to shield its population from legalized gambling, this development raises difficult questions about consumer protection and public health. Hawaii has invested relatively little in gambling-specific prevention, treatment, and recovery infrastructure because legalized gambling has never existed on a meaningful scale within the state. That leaves policymakers facing the prospect of increased participation without a corresponding network of specialized support services, a concern made more significant by Hawaii’s sizable military community and substantial college-age population, groups that research has often identified as potentially vulnerable to gambling-related harms.
Even so, Hawaii is not without options. State leaders, the City and County of Honolulu, healthcare providers, educators, community organizations, and families can still strengthen public awareness, expand gambling education and treatment resources, improve research into emerging forms of online wagering, and evaluate regulatory responses before prediction markets become deeply embedded in the local landscape. Taking proactive steps now would also better prepare the state for any future debate over regulated gambling, including proposals that some observers believe could eventually accompany redevelopment surrounding the new Aloha Stadium entertainment district.
What Hawaii Can Do Today to Protect Vulnerable Residents Against Harms Associated with Prediction Markets
What the State of Hawaii Can Do
Regardless of where policymakers ultimately stand on casino gaming, sports betting, or prediction market trading, Governor Josh Green and stakeholders across the regulatory spectrum should share a common commitment to protecting Hawaii’s most vulnerable residents. That commitment should extend beyond debates over legality and focus on practical investments in prevention and treatment. Educational initiatives designed for youth, young adults, active-duty service members, veterans, and other at-risk populations can help individuals recognize the financial, psychological, and behavioral risks associated with sports-event prediction markets, particularly as these products increasingly resemble traditional online gambling experiences. At the same time, Hawaii should expand access to evidence-based treatment services equipped to address problematic prediction market trading and related gambling behaviors, ensuring that residents who develop harmful patterns have clear pathways to specialized care regardless of how the state’s regulatory landscape evolves.
Achieving that objective will require collaboration with organizations that possess specialized expertise in the intersection of prediction markets, behavioral health, and responsible participation. Resources such as Prediction Market Help (PMH) can assist by developing culturally responsive, population-specific educational materials tailored to Hawaii’s diverse communities while helping state and local leaders better understand emerging behavioral risks associated with sports-event trading products. In addition, organizations with this type of subject-matter expertise can connect the State of Hawaii and the City and County of Honolulu with pre-vetted behavioral health providers experienced in treating problematic online betting and trading behaviors, allowing public agencies to build a support network that is informed by clinical best practices and responsive to the state’s unique demographic and cultural needs. Hawaii regulators who read this can connect to PMH via META to initiate a conversation about next steps.
What Concerned Hawaiians Can Do
One of the greatest challenges posed by unhealthy prediction market trading is that, much like problem gambling, it often develops behind closed doors. Financial losses may be concealed, excessive trading can take place on a smartphone at any hour, and loved ones may not recognize the warning signs until significant emotional, financial, or relationship damage has already occurred. For that reason, close friends and ʻohana should become familiar with the behavioral indicators of problematic prediction market participation, such as increasing preoccupation with markets, chasing losses, secrecy, neglect of responsibilities, irritability when unable to trade, and repeated unsuccessful attempts to cut back. Prediction Market Help (PMH) has compiled these warning signs in its article, Signs of Prediction Market Addiction, providing families with a practical resource for recognizing when recreational participation may be evolving into a harmful pattern. In Hawaii, where communities have long embraced the values of caring for one another and looking after neighbors and extended family, informed friends and ʻohana can play an indispensable role in identifying concerns early, encouraging supportive conversations, and helping loved ones connect with appropriate professional resources before problematic trading behavior escalates into a more serious behavioral health issue. If an issue has been identified, Hawaii’s residents can connect to one of PMH’s recommended treatment providers.
What Conscious Bettors/Traders in Hawaii Can Do
Hawaii residents who decide to participate in prediction markets can reduce their risk of developing unhealthy trading habits by first taking an honest look at whether they belong to a population that research has frequently identified as being more vulnerable to gambling-related harms. This may include young adults whose decision-making and financial habits are still developing, active-duty service members and veterans who can experience unique occupational and life stressors, and individuals living with anxiety, depression, trauma, or other mental health challenges who may be tempted to use online betting or trading as a way to escape or cope with difficult emotions. Self-awareness is an important first step, but it should be paired with education. Becoming familiar with the warning signs outlined in Prediction Market Help’s article, Signs of Prediction Market Addiction, can help participants recognize problematic behaviors early and seek support before those behaviors begin to affect their finances, relationships, employment, or overall well-being.
Those same lessons are equally valuable for Hawaii residents who have not yet opened a prediction market account but are considering doing so in the future. Rather than viewing education as something that becomes important only after participation begins, prospective users can make more informed decisions by understanding both the opportunities and the behavioral risks before placing their first trade. For individuals who believe they may have one or more risk factors—or who simply want an objective assessment of whether prediction market participation is appropriate for them—it can be a prudent step to first connect with a counseling provider recommended by PMH. A confidential risk assessment can help identify personal vulnerabilities, discuss healthy boundaries and financial safeguards, and provide individualized guidance so that any decision to participate is made with a clearer understanding of the potential risks as well as strategies for minimizing harm.
Ultimately, there is no room for prediction market addiction in the Aloha State. Whether Hawaii’s future includes expanded prediction markets, legalized sports betting, commercial casinos, or none of the above, the well-being of residents must remain the highest priority. Every stakeholder—including state and county leaders, regulators, healthcare professionals, educators, community organizations, industry participants, families, and individual residents—shares a kuleana, or responsibility, to look out for one another during this period of change. By embracing education, encouraging early intervention, supporting accessible treatment, and fostering open conversations about the risks of excessive online trading, Hawaii can uphold the values of aloha and mālama while helping ensure that innovation never comes at the expense of its people.
With longstanding ties to Hawaii, Prediction Market Help (PMH) stands ready to assist policymakers, public health leaders, healthcare providers, educators, and community stakeholders in understanding and managing the behavioral health impacts of prediction markets on Hawaiians through education, prevention, early intervention, and connections to specialized treatment resources. Connect to PMH via META to initiate a conversation about next steps.
Much Aloha
