KALSHI

The Rise of Kalshi

As the first prediction market exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has established a dominant position in the industry, with recent analyses estimating that it accounts for the vast majority of U.S. prediction market trading activity. The platform attracts millions of users and generates billions of dollars in trading volume across markets tied to politics, economics, weather, and current events. Comparisons to online gambling escalated when in 2025, Kalshi added sporting event contracts to the platform, which in the eyes of gambling regulators is too close (to gambling) for comfort. Sporting event contracts drive legislative debate today (view updates) and is also partly to credit for the growth in online outreach for help to beat Kalshi addiction. At press, Google / Gemini search for “Kalshi addiction” in addition to “Kalshi self exclusion” averages up to 100 searches per largely populated U.S. state, respectively. 

How Kalshi’s Design May Promote Addictive Behavior

Kalshi may insist that it’s operating not a gambling product, but the app and website feature numerous elements that mirror online betting platforms. Additionally, sporting event contracts feature the same semantics one finds on online sportsbooks, including money lines, point spreads, and futures. Below is a point form summary of Kalshi design elements that are associated with addictive behavior.

• Continuous stream of new markets creates an endless supply of opportunities to place trades.
• Real-time price movements encourage frequent checking and monitoring of positions.
• Financial rewards and losses provide powerful psychological reinforcement.
• Uncertain outcomes create anticipation and emotional investment in market results.
• Near-misses can motivate users to continue trading in pursuit of future wins.
• Market prices constantly update, generating a fear of missing important developments.
• Users are encouraged to follow news, social media, and current events more obsessively.
• The platform frames participation as forecasting and analysis, making trading feel skill-based rather than purely speculative.
• Quick feedback on predictions helps reinforce engagement and repeat participation.
• Large potential payouts can draw attention away from the probability of losses.
• Social discussion around politics, sports, economics, and culture increases emotional attachment to positions.
• Easy access through a mobile app and website reduces friction between impulse and action.
• The combination of entertainment, competition, and monetary incentives can make the platform difficult for some users to disengage from.