POLYMARKET

Polymarket’s Share of Prediction Market Addiction

Polymarket has experienced rapid growth in the United States, helping bring prediction markets into the mainstream by allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. The platform gained widespread attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when billions of dollars in trading volume flowed through election-related markets and its odds were frequently cited by journalists, analysts, and investors as a real-time measure of public expectations. Although regulatory restrictions limited its access to U.S. users for several years, Polymarket continued to expand globally and remained the largest prediction market by trading volume. Today, it is best known for its highly liquid markets on politics, elections, economics, and major news events, where participants collectively forecast future outcomes by buying and selling event contracts. More recently, Polymarket joined its main competitor, Kalshi, in offering contracts on sporting events. And as with Kalshi, the move thrust Polymarket deep into controversy, with public sentiment largely suggesting that what the platform is offering is a sports betting product that should be regulated by state gambling authorities, not the CFTC. It’s Polymarket’s offering of sports trading that is partly to credit for exponential year-over-year growth in Google search volume for “polymarket addiction” and “polymarket self exclusion”. 

Polymarket’s Design May Promote Addictive Behavior

Both Polymarket and the CFTC state that prediction markets are not a gambling product. However, the Polymarket app and website feature design elements that mimic online betting platforms. Sporting event contracts in particular draw direct comparisons to what online sportsbooks are offering, featuring the same verbiage one finds on online sportsbooks, including money lines, point spreads, and futures. Below is a point form summary of Polymarket design elements that are associated with addictive behavior among vulnerable persons:

• Continuous trading/betting opportunities — Markets are available around the clock, creating frequent chances to place new trades.
• Real-time price movements — Constantly changing odds can encourage repeated checking and trading throughout the day.
• Immediate feedback loops — Users can see gains and losses update instantly, which can reinforce continued participation.
• Large number of event categories — Politics, sports, entertainment, economics, and breaking news provide a steady stream of new markets.
• Fear of missing out (FOMO) — Rapidly changing events and headlines can create pressure to act before an opportunity disappears.
• Social validation and discussion — Public conversations about market odds can encourage users to follow the crowd or prove their predictions right.
• Perception of skill over chance — Because prediction markets involve research and analysis, some users may believe they can consistently outperform others, even when outcomes remain highly uncertain.
• Near-miss experiences — Losing a prediction by a small margin can motivate users to keep trading in hopes of “getting the next one right.”
• Variable rewards — Profits occur unpredictably, a pattern that behavioral researchers have long associated with persistent gambling behavior.
• Easy access through mobile devices — The ability to monitor and trade from anywhere reduces friction and can increase engagement.
• News-driven triggers — Major events, polls, economic reports, or breaking stories can repeatedly prompt users to return to the platform.
• Tracking portfolios and performance — Watching account balances fluctuate can make participation feel like a game, encouraging continued involvement.