Prediction markets have experienced remarkable growth over the past two years, driven by increased public interest in forecasting events ranging from elections and economic indicators to technology, global affairs, and most recently (2025) sports. Advances in online trading platform technology, greater awareness of crowd-sourced forecasting, and the rise of blockchain-based markets have attracted a rapidly expanding user base and significantly higher trading volumes. Billions of dollars in contracts are being traded as you read this, with near equal amounts being lost by a growing legion of Americans (predominantly young adult males) who bought into the hype, hoping to become one of the mere 1% of traders who account for more than three-quarters of all prediction market gains.
Prediction Market Help (PMH) was launched in response to the misguided adoption of the activity by those who see it as a means to earn income in times of economic uncertainty. As enough time passes, most will figure out that it’s not. An analysis by the Wall Street Journal unveiled that 70% of users remain unprofitable after just 6-months of trading. Meanwhile, the Gambler’s Ruin formula verifies that as users keep betting they will inevitably reach net-zero, if not debt.
In case you are confused by the semantics, the word betting is appropriate when discussing prediction markets. This is because symptoms of unhealthy trading are practically identical to those associated with gambling disorder. While operators such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood along with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) insist that prediction markets are not gambling platforms, their usage of sports betting terminology including moneyline, point spread, over/under, props, and futures leave little room for misinterpretation.
The concern, is that despite a growing public sentiment that prediction markets are gambling operations, prediction markets remain under the federal control of the CFTC and not state gambling regulators. This means that Responsible Gambling (RG) guardrails enforced by state regulators are not in place to protect vulnerable populations within their respective regions. Despite the relative infancy of contemporary prediction markets in comparison to casino gaming and online sports betting, the number of people self-reporting addictive behavior is rising exponentially. For instance, data from Google indicates that up to 100 individuals per largely populated U.S. state enter “prediction market addiction” into their search browsers each month. As someone who may have arrived here after performing such a search, be you a compromised individual or someone who wants to learn more about the emerging public health crisis, you are seeking answers. How can someone determine if they or a loved one struggles with addictive behavior relating to prediction markets? Read below to find out.
Signs and Symptoms of Prediction Market Addiction
Money Problems
Debt or persistent financial distress as a result of money lost trading/betting on prediction markets.
Trade/Bet More to Recover Losses
Returning to trading / betting in a misguided attempt to recover money lost trading/betting on prediction markets.
Borrow, Sell, or Steal
Resorting to borrowing, selling possessions, or stealing, in a misguided attempt to fund trades / bets on prediction markets.
Hyperfocus
Frequent state of intense, prolonged mental concentration and completely absorption on prediction market apps/sites to the point of tuning out the outside world and losing track of time.
Loss of Interest
No longer interested in activities and hobbies that were once enjoyed prior to discovering prediction markets.
To Cope with Boredom
Frequently engaging with prediction market apps/websites as the primary means to cope with boredom.
To Cope with Loneliness
Frequently engaging with prediction market apps/websites as the primary means to deal with with feelings of loneliness,
To Cope with Anxiety and Stress
Frequently engaging with prediction market apps/websites as the primary means to cope within escape from anxiety, stress, depression, and other negative feelings and emotions,
Lost Productivity
Work or studies suffer as a result of time and attention spent on prediction markets.
No Time for Friends and Family
Relationships with friends and family suffer as a result of time and attention spent on prediction markets.
Sleepless Nights
Staying up too late and/or waking up in the middle of the night to check updates on prediction markets.
Trade More / Bet More
Growing urge to trade / bet with larger amounts and/or with greater frequency in order to attain the same “high” once experienced with lower value and/or fewer trades / bets.
Anxious and Irritable
Feelings of irritability and anger manifest when unable to get online to make trades or check updates on prediction markets.
Hiding
Hiding the extent of participation in, financial losses from, prediction markets from family and friends.
Can’t Stop
Unable to quit or even take a short break (e.g., one week) despite wanting and trying to do so.
Are any of the above evident in your own behavior? If so, connect to a specialized counseling service linked below.
